Truths
  • Liquid! You think your third rate theory will prevail against me, the one and only Furudo Erika? I will enlighten you on how this was done!

    For Psycho Mantis' murder, the victim was lured to the boss' room. The culprit hid in the corner of the room, to the side of the entrance. Once Mantis entered he swing a large blunt object down onto his forehead head. Since he's coming from the side and Mantis is wearing the gas mask, thus limiting his peripheral vision, Mantis did not see the attack and is knocked out and murdered! The culprit then left, locked the door, then either threw the keycard into the room from either the roof or the restroom, landing on the desk.

    For Meryl's murder, the nerve gas grenade was used. They threw it into the kitchen through the window, Meryl threw it back out then succumbed to the gas, then the culprit toss it into the ocean. The culprit wore Mantis' gas mask so they weren't affected.

    For the Doctor's murder, either the jeep (and the warning lights) were tampered so the break wouldn't work and the doctor would fly out of the car and through the window, dying, or the culprit ran in front of the car, causing the Doctor to slam the break and fly out. You might say "but Multi everyone had an alibi!", and to that I'll say....

    the culprit is one of the R and D staff! They left their platform by sneaking into the food delivery jeep then went back to the platform when Ocelot and Erika went back to check on them by sneaking onto their jeep!

    Solid Snake - Culprit visits Solid, Solid approached cell bar, Culprit slams peg into Solid's skull and either the momentum sent them flying to the other side of the cell or Solid stumbled back and died there

    Solidus Snake - Trap. I don't like it but I don't have a better explanation.

    Gray Fox - Culprit was on the jeep. They tampered with it during the blindspot and leapt out after clearing the checkpoint.

    Johnny, Ocelot, and big boss - All of their deaths can be explained if the weapons were retrieved - The culprit, after jumping out of the jeep and after everyone left, went down to the water with the help of his accomplice, the other R and D staff, and swam to where Erika disposed of the weapons. They then grabbed some of them, swam back to the R and D platform, and was lifted up by their accomplice. Weapons are thus acquired! They can then just leave the platform because the footage wasn't checked after that.

    Miller - The culprit was on the roof with him. He strangled Miller and jumped off into the rose garden below. Maybe he survived, maybe he didn't.

    And thus the events that have transpired are explained!
  • No rubber bullets or other non-lethal ammo exist on the island. There are also no Silencers.
  • The culprit did not attack Mantis from a concealed position.
  • It is impossible to simply throw the card key into the office from the roof or the restroom.
  • It is impossible to hide in a jeep without being seen by the cameras at the Security Checkpoint.
  • Solid Snake never approached the cell bars after being locked up in the brig.
  • It is impossible to retrieve the weapons after Erika disposes of them.
  • The Rose Garden cannot break your fall.
  • Meryl Silverburgh was killed by sarin gas that had been pumped from a gas grenade into the gas stove, such that when the stove were turned on, the gas would fill the room. By the time the door was opened, the gas had already gone out the open window.
  • Naomi Hunter was killed when she was thrown from her jeep, which the culprit had sabotaged well ahead of time. The warning lights weren't on because they were also sabotaged.
  • Maybe they weighed down the tires so that the car would stop quickly once the engine gave out?
  • The culprit placed the cactus covered in venom on the floor of the shower, then used soap and/or shampoo to create a slick spot which Solidus slipped on, landing neck first on the cactus. The slick was washed away by the shower
  • The culprit used a rubber band (or multiple rubber bands) to fling the stake at Solid Snake like a slingshot.
  • Gray Fox's jeep was also sabotaged ahead of time, with the emergency lights shut off. The steering wheel was tampered with, such that a small steering adjustment sent Fox veering out of control.
  • Also sabotaged in advance: the gas stove again. The culprit removed the stopper, so that turning on the stove instantly flooded the room with a large amount of burning gas, which set Johnny Sasaki on fire, then quickly burned itself out as all the gas was used up at once.
  • Ocelot's jeep was sabotaged so that the gas tank would explode. Or maybe the culprit rigged a grenade or plastic explosive to it before all the equipment was collected, but I'm pretty sure that violates the red.
  • Big Boss was killed, then the culprit slowly hacked his head off with a semi-sharp object that wasn't among the weapon blades thrown away, such as the tent stake.
  • The culprit strangled Miller to death on the roof, then climbed down a rope - not to the bottom, which would have taken too long, but to Big Boss's office, the window of which was broken after Erika ran upstairs. The one who broke the window was the accomplice, who was hiding in the restroom. The two of them quickly retrieved the rope together.
  • The culprit is Sniper Wolf. The accomplice is Vulcan Raven. According to the meal schedule, only the two of them working together could have entered the kitchen to sabotage the stove on two separate occasions.
  • The Philosopher's Legacy is in the rose patch in the courtyard, the center of the Command Platform, where all the paths on Six House Island connect. Big Boss and Ocelot's secret talk was about it, which is why they had their talk there.
  • The culprit placed some heavy object on top of the main entrance door so that it would drop on Mantis when he went there in the morning. Since it was a trap, there were no minds to read. Then the culprit dragged him to Big Boss' office and stabbed him there.
    Card key was placed in the room via string and tape :^)
  • No vehicle was tampered with so that it would malfunction internally.
  • The stove was not tampered with and functions normally.
  • Solidus did not slip while in the shower cabin.
  • Big Boss was killed through decapitation.
  • No window in the Command Building was ever broken.
  • No strings were used to place the Card Key in Big Boss's Office.
  • Everything I'm about to say occurred before Boss, Ocelot, or Miller arrived on the command platform.

    The culprit KO'd Mantis by dropping something on his head, either from the roof or the windows. Then they dragged his body to the office and killed him.
  • The culprit took a sniper rifle and fired two shots from the office to the restroom (or vice versa). The bullets had tape/rubber bands tied together/rope (in decreasing order of sense) attached to them, so now there were two lines linking the rooms. The lines were tied together at both ends to form a loop from the restroom to the office. This loop was used to move the card key after locking the office from the outside. The bullets weren't found because the culprit took them. There were no bullet holes because the bullets hit a metal wall. The 15cm gap in the window would have been impossible to shoot through for anyone... except Sniper Wolf.
  • the culprit might have thrown a rope or tape line out the window and had it caught by their accomplice, since 15cm is enough to fit a hand through.
  • The culprit put on Mantis's mask, and they were the one who walked past Miller. Then they hid in the storage room until Miller went in the restroom, then left.
  • Meryl was killed by a gas grenade, which she threw out the window. The grenade was hooked up to something (probably the bread - note there was no toast, despite it being on the menu), and went off when she touched what it was hooked to. Meryl threw it out the window. When Erika looked out the window, she didn't see Snake anywhere, so there must have been a window of time when he wasn't there, regardless of what he says. The grenade rolled somewhere Erika couldn't see (the blind spot under the window?), then was disposed of by Raven during the search.
  • Naomi's jeep hit a blockade (low enough that it only hit the tires, not a part where damage would be visible), sending her flying. The blockade was flung to the blind spot under the window, where Wolf collected it and threw it into the sea.
  • The soap/shampoo were treated with venom or another drug. The cactus was a false lead planted by the culprit, that Solidus fell on as he died or lost consciousness.
  • Fox's jeep was pulled off of the base by a powerful magnet in the crane. (They threw a few magnets in the sea, but it was never stated in red that they got them all.) Or it hit a tripwire and pulled it off with it.
  • Johnny was covered in gasoline or some other accelerant at some point, and proximity to the gas burner set him alight. Nobody smelled the gasoline because Johnny reeked of poo.
  • The culprit dropped a heavy weight of supplies off of the roof and crushed Big Boss's neck, then moved his body and head inside.
  • The culprit is Miller.
    The accomplice is Octopus.

    Mantis was knocked out by some heavy object trap as before.
    And sure, Miller saw that. And said nothing.
    He then dragged the body over to the office and used some flat long object as a slide, either from the rest room or the roof above, into the open office window and onto the table.

    Meryl was killed by some pre-planted poison gas in the kitchen. How? It was simply frozen and mixed with the food she wanted to prepare.

    Naomi's jeep was also pre-rigged to stop abruptly, ya didn't deny that yet.

    For Solidus, the cactus was glued to the shower head. SOlidus didn't look up and simply turned on the water, which made it fall on his neck.

    Snake was killed as has been theorized, by launching a stake with some rubber bands, crossbow or slingshot style.

    Fox and Ocelot... yep, it's just a rigged jeep again. Same as before.

    Big Boss was decapitated with a sword.

    Finally, Miller killed himself with some string/rope he left hanging down the side of the building. While Octopus was left behind in the main hall, he pulled it down and retrieved it before Raven and Wolf showed up.

    ...Ah, but how could Big Boss be killed like that after all swords got thrown away?
    Simple. Big Boss was actually killed the previous day - while he and Miller collected all the weapons.
    Octopus posed as him just in time when Erika got back to the helipad and threw everything out.
    The next day, he swapped back after Erika saw "Big Boss" leave the room, and was present for the R&D investigation and everything.
    This is also why he switched out his name from the kitchen list - Clearly the culprit was just fine with killing anyone, so why bother swapping any names unless they couldn't afford to have Octopus die?

    When Ocelot called in at the end to say they talked to Big Boss, that was actually either Miller or Octopus simply pretending to be Ocelot. (assuming Octopus has an alibi there due to Liquid, I guess he couldn't have posed as Big Boss again there, so that has to have happened instead)
  • Mantis was never knocked out cold.
  • No guns were ever fired.
  • Meryl never held a gas grenade in her hand.
  • Naomi's jeep never crashed or bumped into anything.
  • The cactus coated in venom is what killed Solidus. The soap and shampoo are not poisonous.
  • No magnets were used for any of the crimes.
  • Johnny was clean when he entered the kitchen.
  • Big Boss's head was cut off but is otherwise still intact and undamaged.
  • The nerve gas was never frozen.
  • The cactus was never placed or stuck on the shower head.
  • No glue was used except for the cactus being glued to the pot.
  • Miller did not commit suicide.
  • Big Boss was alive on the first day. Big Boss was killed on the second day.
  • Mantis wasn't knocked unconscious, but the damage to his brain from the bruise ruined his mind reading powers.
  • In Meryl's case, the stove itself wasn't tampered with, there was just gas inside of it. A finite amount of gas, that had already gone out the window by the time Erika opened the door.
  • Solidus died as a result of drugs making him lose consciousness or muscle control and fall on the cactus.
  • Boss's head was cut off by razor wire.
  • Mantis still had functioning mind reading powers when he died.
  • Meryl died due to Sarin nerve gas. What killed her did not come from the gas stove.
  • Solidus was perfectly healthy and not influenced by drugs until the cactus killed him.
  • No razor wire that can cut off heads exists on the island.
  • Mantis was poisoned in his breakfast, hit his head as he fell. The knife wound was posthumous.
  • Mantis was drugged in his breakfast and hit his head as he fell, then was moved to the office and stabbed.
  • Mantis was killed in his sleep, and the culprit dropped him while moving the body.
  • The locked room trick was my "throw a line to the accomplice in the restroom" theory, but the line was tent fabric. When the key was moved, the edges of the fabric were held up to form a kind of chute or half-pipe.
  • Gas entered the kitchen from outside via the window. One of the northern search party disposed of the grenade. If you're going to say that just gas drifting outside wouldn't have killed Meryl, then I'll argue there was a tube herding the gas inside. If you plead Knox's 8th... there's tubes everywhere. Straws? Gun barrels taped together?
  • Naomi hunter was drugged, which caused her to behave erratically or lose control of her muscles, slam on the brakes hard, and go flying.
  • Solidus was stealthily jabbed once with an envenomed needle, which didn't cause paralysis until he arrived at the shower and locked the door. Then he fell on the cactus.
  • Raven quickly strung the tripwire during dinner delivery, just quickly holding out the tripwire and letting it catch or dropping it off to the side, all without stopping. Alternatively, the trap was a single nail that fell out of the tire on impact.
  • A pot full of gasoline was used in a trap, or one or more of the kitchen utensils were treated with accelerant. A single spark from the stove was enough to burn Johnny to death.
  • Big Boss was knocked unconscious (probably by a chokehold, judging by the lack of marks anywhere else on his body), then decapitated by a spinning helicopter blade. The culprit and the accomplice then moved his body.
  • The culprit and the accomplice strung a rope from Tower 1 to 2, which is how the culprit escaped. The door to Tower 1 isn't locked, the light is just painted red. If there's no paint on the island, then it was painted with blood.
  • No one was ever influenced by drugs or knocked out cold before death.
  • Mantis died in Big Boss's Office.
  • The accomplice did not help at all in setting up the Mantis Locked Room.
  • Solidus was not wounded in any way until he was killed. Solidus died close to instantly.
  • It is impossible to drop items on the road while driving a jeep.
  • Johnny was not yet on fire when he was yelling for help.
  • The door to the Tower 1 roof was truly locked as the red light indicates.
  • The culprit attacked Mantis from behind, grabbing him to restrict his movements before stabbing him by reaching around with the knife in a reverse grip. Alternatively, the accomplice restrained him before the culprit drew the knife and stabbed him. Mantis was good at noticing people sneaking up on him, but his comrades at MSF could just walk up to him without needing to sneak.
  • After Solidus locked the shower stall, the culprit knocked the whole cabin over, dropping Solidus on the cactus. Then they propped it back up. The cactus was standing up because the stall is too small and there was no room for it to fall over with Solidus taking up space.
  • Fox didn't lose control of the jeep because of interference with the jeep - he lost control abruptly swerving trying to avoid something surprising or threatening-looking on the R&D platform, planted ahead of time. The culprit knew the usual personnel wouldn't see it because they never go outside and the building has no windows.
  • The culprit was standing at the window of the kitchen and moved to attack Johnny, scaring him and making him call for help. This would, of course, cast suspicion on Liquid and Octopus.
  • The Vulcan Raven seen on the security camera footage was actually Decoy Octopus in disguise. Raven and Octopus traded tasks, just like Liquid and Fox. Raven never brought this up because it would make him look suspicious, and because he thought it was unrelated to the case for all the reasons Fox's death is hard to solve.
  • The culprit had placed a puddle of gasoline at the area where Ocelot's jeep exploded ahead of time. When Ocelot drove over it, the culprit tossed a lighter around the corner from the courtyard and set it alight, blowing up the jeep's gas tank.
  • One or both of the keycards on Miller's person weren't the keycards to the rooftop door, but different ones. The culprit had already left the rooftop before Erika's arrival, Miller asking "who's there" was a recording played via his iDroid, or Octopus doing vocal mimicry over the same.
  • It is impossible to sneak up behind Mantis without him noticing. No person restrained Mantis.
  • The shower cabin never fell over with Solidus inside it.
  • Fox lost control of his jeep because something did indeed interfere with it. It didn't happen because Fox saw something he was trying to avoid.
  • Ocelot's jeep exploded instantly.
  • The two card keys found on Miller's corpse truly are the only keys that are compatible with the two rooftop doors.
  • The voice saying ''Who's there?'' that Erika heard belongs to the real Miller. Miller was still alive when he said this!
  • The culprit and the accomplice both attacked Mantis while he was eating breakfast, which would have required him to take off his mask. Without his protective shielding, two people was more distraction than Mantis could take, and the culprit was able to kill him.
  • the office card key was moved by flattened cardboard boxes stuck together with duct tape.
  • The culprit went into the kitchen, killed Meryl with a gas grenade while wearing Mantis's mask, swapped the key to their room with the kitchen key in Meryl's pocket, and walked out the door. This was, of course, extremely risky, but automatic doors aren't very loud. It's also possible the accomplice deliberately distracted everyone, maybe by making a scene when some strange girl demanded to frisk him.
  • The culprit also called Naomi himself, causing her to rush to the Habitation Platform before Fox called her. When she arrived, he killed her, and took her iDroid. When Fox called her, that was the culprit doing vocal mimicry (I'm accusing Octopus, if that's not obvious). While everyone else was staring slack-jawed at the kitchen crime scene, the culprit and the accomplice brought her body inside and then smashed the window.
  • There was a thin string threaded through the door of the shower cabin that the culprit pulled, either tripping Solidus or pulling the cactus into him. The string wasn't tied to anything, so the culprit retrieved it by just pulling one end.
  • The culprit strung a tripwire all the way from the far end (past the cameras) of the R&D platform to the Prison Platform.
  • The culprit pulled a fake gun or some other weapon that looked like it wouldn't have been stopped by a humble glass window. Johnny, being a massive coward, flailed in panic, probably falling over, and wound up hitting the flame that ignited him. This was all part of the culprit's plan, because Johnny is nothing if not predictable. Johnny's last panicked motions as he burned to death turning of the stove were less predictable, but worked out in the culprit's favor.
  • Ocelot's jeep exploded a few seconds after Ocelot hit the ignition because the culprit put something more volatile than gasoline in the tank, such as flamethrower fuel, white phosphorus, or... helicopter gas?.
  • The millisecond after Miller asked "who's there?", he was killed. Then the culprit escaped in the same helicopter used to decapitate Big Boss.
  • The office key was not moved by flattened cardboard boxes.
  • Erika would have noticed if anyone entered the kitchen after Meryl did.
  • Naomi only went from the Clinic to the Habitation Platform after Fox called her about Meryl's death.
  • No string tricks are involved in Solidus's murder.
  • Fox's murder does not involve tripwire in any way.
  • What caused Johnny to call for help was not because of a person he saw or heard. It was not a person which Johnny was frightened of.
  • The fuel for Ocelot's Jeep is only normal jeep gasoline. Ocelot's jeep did not explode because of something Ocelot did.
  • The only time the Helicopter was ever in the air (as far as relevancy to this board goes) was when it picked up Erika and brought her to the island.
  • The culprit and the accomplice both attacked Mantis at the same time. With his mask on, Mantis could only read one mind at a time, so he couldn't dodge them both. Or he could, but the two attackers deliberately spaced out their movements so that Mantis physically lacked the range of motion to avoid them both.
  • The culprit filled the walk-in freezer with sarin gas and removed the defrosted bread from the kitchen so Meryl would have to open it to get new bread. The freezer had to have been air-tight, otherwise the cold would have escaped into the room (freezers 101). Therefore, the gas didn't escape until Meryl opened the freezer. Meryl used her last minute or so of life to open the window and filter out the deadly gas.
  • Fox's jeep hit some hard to see trap, like glass shards on the road, before reaching the checkpoint. The thick tires meant the jeep didn't start to lose control until a few seconds later when the air finished leaving them. Octopus lied about there being nothing stuck in the tires.
  • Johnny wasn't scared of a human, he was scared of Bossatrice!...'s portrait reflected in the window, or a projection. Or Octopus in disguise, but that's a pretty gray area in the red.
    Backup theory: Johnny saw a gas or heard a hissing sound (maybe something was put in the instant ramen to make it steam up more, like evaporating ice) and, remembering that the last person who cooking in here died of gas, panicked.
  • Ocelot's jeep was blown up by a gunpowder trap.
  • Miller was strangled, but not to death. When he was cut off following his first call to Erika, that was the culprit attacking him, leaving the marks Erika saw. Miller escaped from the culprit, ran upstairs to the roof, locked the door behind him, talked to Erika again... then died of Brazillian Wandering Spider venom.
  • Mantis was never attacked by two or more people.
  • Neither the walk-in freezer nor the pantry are airtight and would not be able contain loose sarin gas in there.
  • Nothing placed before or after the blindspot of the Security Checkpoint could have caused to make Fox's jeep lose control. Octopus did not lie about his findings.
  • Johnny was not scared of anything close to resembling a human. Johnny panicked at something he could clearly see as threatening.
  • Ocelot's jeep was not destroyed by a trap.
  • Miller was strangled to death.
  • The culprits are the people on the R&D Team! The main culprit hasn't been on the R&D Platform since before the security cameras were installed! Nobody noticed they weren't where they were supposed to be because the accomplice was covering for them!
  • The culprit hid inside Mantis's room before he went to bed the night before he was killed. On the day of Mantis's death, they treated his mask with some kind of irritant while he was asleep, so that by the time he arrived in Big Boss's office, he couldn't stand to wear it anymore. Without the mask, he was too distracted to dodge.
  • The culprit killed Meryl from the window with a gas grenade and Mantis's mask, and Naomi outside. Then they ran to a room in the barracks. As I stated in a previous theory, Snake wasn't seen by Erika when she looked out the kitchen window, so there was clearly a period of time when he wasn't on lookout.
  • There were small needles - small enough to be washed down the drain - hidden in the shower head. When Solidus turned on the shower, the water pressure launched them into him. The cactus was a misdirection.
  • Fox was knocked off of the island by a hidden projectile launcher planted in or near the crane either by the culprit before they left the R&D Platform, which was before the security cameras went up, or by the accomplice. The launcher was remote activated by the culprit. who knew when to fire because they were looking at the camera feed on their iDroid. The launcher was disposed of by the accomplice.
  • Johnny screamed as a result of the trap itself! Johnny saw and smelled that he had been covered in gasoline, and realized that the culprit was planning to burn him to death. He screamed in fear, and ran to the stove, assuming it had been tampered with and that he needed to stop it... but in actuality, it had just been left on, and Johnny running to it and getting set on fire was itself the culprit's plan.
  • In the middle of the night while Erika was keeping watch over the barracks, the culprit left the island altogether and retrieved a plastic explosive that they had stowed away in expectation that the island would be searched after Mantis's death. This explosive killed Ocelot.
  • The culprit strangled Miller to death, then committed suicide by jumping off the roof. The accomplice quickly hid their body. The accomplice went to the Command Platform after the last time anybody alive at the end of the board checked the cameras.
  • the culprit jumped with a parachute,
  • The 'heavy object trap' was actually set up in Big Boss' office. So when Mantis entered the room, some heavy thing fell on his head, knocking him down. A knife was set up on the floor and he fell into it as a result.
  • Miller was strangled... from ground level, using a very long string/rope set up around his neck. This was done right after he asked who's there. It was then simply removed real quick.
  • Mantis had his mask on when he died. His mask was not tampered with in any way.
  • The cactus that killed Solidus never lost its needles.
  • It is impossible to throw or shoot something to the blindspot without the cameras seeing it.
  • No gasoline was involved with Johnny's death. Simply running to the stove or just being close to it would not cause Johnny to get incinerated the way he did.
  • No one left the island after Erika arrived.
  • The culprit did not jump off the Command Building.
  • Mantis was not hit by anything that could knock him down on the floor.
  • Miller was not strangled by a rope or other item that was used from the ground to strangle Miller on the roof.
  • Liquid himself was the accomplice, and that the 2nd R&D person thought the culprit was off the island on work (maybe collecting supplies or comparing research notes with other scientists),
  • The needles in the shower head weren't cactus needles. The entire presence of a cactus was misdirection.
  • Mantis himself was the accomplice. His contribution to the crime was letting himself be killed.
  • a gas in the sprinklers instead of water, since the culprit knew Johnny was a lousy cook who could burn instant ramen. Johnny saw colored gas fill the room and knew he was about to die.
  • Can the cameras be switched off and on again without anyone noticing? Or have their tapes removed so there'd be an unknown gap in the footage?
  • Both R&D Staff members were inside the R&D Building when Liquid checked up on them.
  • Mantis was not killed willingly and neither let himself get killed to contribute to the culprit's plot.
  • Neither the cameras nor the footage was ever tampered with.

  • One of the R&D folks is the culprit and Solidus is the accomplice. The culprit leaves the platform by lowering the crane and climbing down, swim to another spot on the island where they have set up a rope earlier, and climb up. They can then return to the platform using the same path whenever someone goes there.

    Mantis - Mantis entered the office, went to sleep, and got stabbed. The head bruise was inflicted posthumously.

    Meryl - Culprit was outside the window, when Meryl entered (liquid just left and haven't gotten to the window yet) they throw the grenade in. Meryl then throws it out and dies. Culprit then dispose of it in the sea.

    naomi - Culprit runs in front of the truck. The doctor then brakes suddenly (so they won't crash into them) and fly out of the car and through the window.

    Solidus - Culprit set up the cactus in the shower and told their accomplice, Solidus, that they need to stab the cactus in their neck for superhuman power or smth (they're R&D so that's sorta believable?). Solidus does so and dies.

    Gray Fox - Culprit, during the night, uses a grappling hook to get to the checkpoint blindspot from the water below. They then pour water/oil over that spot and uses a rope to climb back down (tugging the rope off the platform to get rid of it). When Gray Fox drive over the path he slips on the water/oil and loses control. Culprit burns the oil to get rid of the evidence/water dries before the others arrive.

    Alternatively: If solidus wasn't the accomplice and died by other means i haven't identified, then the accomplice is Vulcan Raven who, on his dinner drive duty, paused at the blindspot to pour oil. He poured only a small amount so when Gray Fox drove there it got rid of most traces of the oil.

    Ocelot - Culprit has a small tank of oil (technically explosive but there clearly were still oil on the island soooo). They light it on fire and roll it under the jeep as it drives by, causing it to explode.

    Miller - Culprit convinced Miller to let him onto Tower 1 roof. They then told Miller to go onto Tower 2 roof. Culprit then use a long rope to lasso Miller and strangle him. They then hid on Tower 1 roof.
  • It is impossible to get onto the island from the ocean other than using the crane. This crane cannot be moved. The crane is in complete view of a Security Checkpoint camera.
  • Mantis was conscious as he died.
  • Solidus did not stab himself with the cactus.
  • No makeshift explosives were created to blow up Ocelot's Jeep.
  • Miller never willingly let anyone onto any of the Command Building rooftops.
  • Miller was not strangled by a rope.
  • Mantis was actually poisoned to death. Perhaps there was a cup of tea waiting for him in the office or something that he decided to drink. The wounds were posthumous.
  • The culprit had prepared egg shells containing sarin gas so that when Meryl started preparing the omelette, the gas killed her as she cracked open the eggs.
  • Glue perpared by the culprit grabbed onto the tires of the jeep and stopped it cold, launching Naomi through the window.
  • Poison cactus was set up in the ceiling with ice prepared in the walk-in freezer. Once Solidus started showering, the hot vapors melted the ice and made the cactus fall on him.
  • The blind spot is actually within the reach of the crane, and thus it is possible to use it to place some caltrops or whatnot to screw with the steering of the car without the cameras picking up on it.
  • Sure, it might be impossible to retreive the stuff Erika disposed of, and we know that after Erika's disposal efforts, there were no weapons on the island, but that doesn't mean it was completely impossible for the culprit to have access to any weapons. All they needed to do was store a weapon outside the island - in the water near the crane, that is - and retreive it after Erika got rid of everything on the island. They could've stored a bomb, for example, which then blew up Ocelot's jeep.
  • The culprit had stolen one of Miller's rooftop keys previously. He then entered the other rooftop, used a makeshift bridge such as a ladder to get to Miller, strangled him to death, returned the key card to Miller, traversed the makeshift bridge and left through the door. They could do this because they set the door to be locked, but kept the door open until they left the rooftop after murdering Miller. The door thus locked itself when they closed the door behind them. Or perhaps they had tampered with the door such that even though the system shows the red light of the door being locked, the door can still be opened.
  • Mantis was threatened or cajoled into letting himself be killed.
  • before he was killed, Mantis smashed his own mask to prevent the culprit from using it in any cases involving gas, resulting in the bruise on his forehead.
  • The culprit added additional weight to Naomi's jeep, so that as soon as she took her foot off of the gas pedal, it stopped quickly, throwing her off.
  • For Fox, they did the opposite: removed armor plating and other non-essential bits from the jeep until it was light enough that the strong ocean winds blew it off of the island when he went on the narrow road.
  • Ocelot was killed by a thrown lighter as in an earlier theory, but the culprit poked a small hole in the gas tank so that the flames had immediate access to the tank, resulting in an immediate explosion. Erika didn't see the trail of burning gas because it was hidden behind the jeep, which exploded before making any turns.
  • The chest wound is what killed Mantis.
  • No glue was ever smeared on any road.
  • No weapons, including bombs, were hidden somewhere where Erika couldn't have found them and disposed of them.
  • Miller's rooftop keys were always on his person.
  • The culprit never set foot on the Tower 2 rooftop before Miller died.
  • No additional weight or items were placed on or in Naomi's jeep.
  • Fox's jeep was not tampered with in any way.
  • Mantis doesn't actually have mind reading powers, that would be a Knox violation. Thus, killing him would be easy.
  • The Gray Fox seen on the security camera footage was actually Decoy Octopus! He intentionally drove off of the platform, and survived using a technique or item. It could be anything from a parachute to proper diving form. The real Gray Fox was pushed to his death from somewhere else. Octopus was brought back to the island by his partner in crime.
  • Miller himself wasn't on Rooftop 2 at the time Erika heard his voice. The culprit convinced him that Erika was the culprit, and luring her to the roof so they could trap her there was the best idea. Miller's voice was coming from an iDroid. Alternatively, Erika and Miller are both really hammy, so they shouted loud enough to be heard over long distances. The culprit kills Miller on Rooftop 1, then moves his body to Rooftop 2 using items. To give one example: rubber band corpse slingshot. To give another: a ladder like Midsummer theorized. Etc. Etc. They then hide behind the Rooftop 1 satellite dish until the end of the gameboard.
  • After entering the office, a trap splashed Mantis' gas mask with paint or something, obscuring his vision. Unwilling to take off his gas mask, Mantis was helpless to defend himself against the culprit's assault. The amount of paint was pretty small, and the remaining traces were covered by bloodstains.
  • The culprit actually strangled Miller inside the building, crushing his windpipes and making him unable to breathe anymore. However, Miller still had some air left in his lungs. He escaped to the roof, locked the door behind him. With his last breath, he asked who was behind the door, after which he succumbed to death by asphyxiation.
  • The Gray Fox Erika saw fall off the platform on the camera footage was the REAL Gray Fox.
  • Miller died on Tower Rooftop 2. He had no injuries of any kind beforehand.
  • Mantis's vision was never limited by something the culprit did and thus did not impact his mind reading abilities.
  • The culprit killed Mantis while sleepwalking, thus making him unable to read his mind.
  • The culprit was not asleep when Mantis died. The culprit was never asleep during the entire board.
  • The culprit tied a sturdy steel rope attached to the clinic to the back of Naomi's jeep, which caused her to be violently ejected out of the car once the rope ran out of slack. The culprit then untied the rope and the accomplice pulled it all the way back into the clinic.

    Which of course, makes Sniper Wolf the culprit, and Roy Campbell her accomplice.
  • When Mantis walked into the office, the accomplice was there to greet him, as a distraction.

    The culprit was hidden in the restroom and threw a stone at him with her imba sharpshooting skills, which dazed him long enough for the accomplice to physically restrain him. The culprit could then throw a knife into his chest through the window!
  • The accomplice is not involved at all in Mantis's murder.
  • A knifegu-- crossbow-like thing was set up on Big Boss' desk that was rigged to launch a knife the moment the door opened. The head wound is from Mantis collapsing afterwards. Culprit is far away. No mind reading possible.
  • The knife was not shot, flung or thrown into Mantis's chest, like from long range.
  • The knife was attached to something that worked like a rake/seesaw. You know the classic gag.
    When Mantis stepped on it, his weight made it swing upwards, the knife piercing his chest and some other part hitting his face. In the office of course.
  • When the R&D platform was built, the culprit worked in some secret mechanism on the bridge that could be used to make the jeep lose control remotely. I'm thinking like a mechanism to raise a little ramp in the blind spot that would throw him off course.
  • Fox's jeep did not lose control due to a (hidden) ramp on the road, nor is there a mechanism built in the bridge to remotely reveal such a thing.
  • Sniper Wolf used her amazing sharpshooting skills to either toss or fire with a makeshift slingshot a small pebble or a different small object, striking the ignition button of Fox's Jeep right as he was in the blind spot of the cameras. This caused Fox to lose control of the vehicle for long enough to cause him to drive off the platform into the cold sea below.
  • The ignition of Fox's jeep was never turned off until the jeep fell into the ocean.
  • Most of the people present in the final scene can attest to the fact that Erika has an alibi for Meryl and Naomi's deaths. Meryl, as we know, was killed by a trap, but without the kitchen keycard, Erika couldn't have set it. And nobody believes Erika has an accomplice, especially not Campbell, who she's never met before, so she couldn't have set up anything for Naomi either.
  • Liquid's whole accusation is based on the assumption that Erika had a concealed flamethrower on her person when she went to Johnny's crime scene. However, he also claimed to have followed her and seen her at the crime scene. It's impossible for such a tiny girl to have concealed an entire flamethrower on her person without it being visible.
  • 4 weeks ago, before the cameras were switched on, the culprit strung a loop of steel rope like the one used to kill Naomi from the area north of the cameras to the current location of the blind spot and back. It didn't kill anybody before Fox because it hadn't been pulled taught yet, which the culprit did in the middle of the night.
  • Miller was strangled by a rubber band, which Wolf got up to the roof from Miller's office using her impeccable aim. But without an anchor point, Miller would have been pulled off of the roof rather than strangled to death, so the band was hooked on the door to Rooftop 2. When Liquid and Campbell broke down the door, the band snapped away on its own.
  • The culprit ambushed Miller by breaking down the door to rooftop 1 in advance, and then hiding behind the satellite dish. She used a forked ice pole to strangle Miller by pressing his throat against the wall beside the door.
  • perhaps the culprit incapacitated Miller with the spider venom first. Maybe she had a small ice spike coated with it as well.
  • the culprit killed Fox by tossing a pebble that hit Fox in the nerves at the knee, causing his leg to involuntarily straighten, hitting the gas pedal, wildly accelerating the car so that it barreled down the platform before he could regain control.
  • The door to rooftop 1 was never broken into.
  • It is impossible to create 4 meter ice poles. Miller was not strangled by one.
  • Miller's only injury was the strangulation that ended up killing him.
  • The culprit never attacked Fox before or while he was driving the jeep.
  • The culprit put some seagull bait and attached it to Gray Fox's jeep. So as the car was passing the checkpoint, a swarm of hungry seagulls went flying against it to snatch the snacks. One of them got stuck under the tires and caused the car to go out of control!

    And of course, since there needs to be some sort of long broom or ladder to clean the aforementioned seagull nests, this was used by the culprit to strike Miller all the way from the restroom window, pinning him against the wall and strangling him!
    (Or alternatively, she used a lasso made of rubber band to snatch his neck and strangle him from afar, assuming it doesn't count as rope-like!)
  • If Wolf wants to argue that she could have missed the steel rope on Naomi's jeep, then I'm allowed to argue that Erika could have missed the steel rope on the cameras. If we accept the premise that the steel rope is easy to see, then Erika has a bulletproof alibi.
  • The culprit used a (makeshift, probably) slingshot to hit Miller in the throat with a solid object that crushed his windpipe and left the marks seen on his throat. Then retrieved the item with a rope/string/band/cloth.
  • the culprit tossing a rock that struck the gas pedal of the car, the sudden acceleration causing Fox to lose control. Or striking a tire in such a way as to cause the car to steer to the right.
  • Seagulls did not swarm Fox's Jeep.
  • No rope of any kind is involved in Fox's death.
  • Nothing was ever tossed at Fox's jeep.
  • No ladder longer than 5 meters exists on the island.
  • The culprit used ice to stick the blockade that Fox hit to the bottom of Erika and Ocelot's jeep in the same way she stuck that cactus to the top of the shower. The plan was to frame Erika from the beginning (or at least from her arrival on the island), it landing in the blind spot was a freak coincidence.
  • Nothing was ever stuck on the jeeps that are relevant for Fox's death.
  • Ice was used to create the slick itself. Clear ice chunks melted slowly in the cold ocean winds, causing the road to grow slick after a long period of time.
  • It was never so cold on the island that there would be frost on the roads.
  • 4 weeks ago, the culprit hung a blockade over the edge of the road next to the blind spot with string, which ran in a straight line all the way over to the road to the Medical Platform, pretty much exactly where midsummer put the ladder in his theory. After the last time a non-Fox person went along the road, the culprit pulled the string from the Medical Platform road and dragged the blockade out of the ocean and onto the R&D road. After Fox went in the ocean, the culprit pulled the string again and retrieved the blockade, which is why Octopus didn't find it.
  • If the solution to Fox's murder involves the words "4 weeks ago" in any capacity, that will be proof of Erika's innocence. She wasn't on the island back then, and everybody seems convinced she couldn't have forged any alliances before her arrival.
  • Wolf had placed some extra heavy weights onto the breakfast boxes (and maybe loaded the boxes herself into the delivery Jeep to avoid Fox noticing anything weird). The combination of extra weight and slippery roads due to rainfall caused the car to start sliding instead of slowing down when Fox tried to brake. The reason he didn't notice this earlier was that the road to the R&D platform is the longest straight road, so Fox had only driven at slow speeds before that.
  • No string tricks are involved with Fox's murder.
  • The culprit did not do anything to the breakfast containers Fox was delivering in his Jeep. Added weight to Fox's Jeep could not make him slip.
  • When the R&D platform and the bridge to it was being built, the culprit actually built a separate bridge under the bridge proper that she then used to travel to the blind spot, placing some obstacle there that caused the car to bump out of Fox's control. This obstacle was retreived by either the culprit or her accomplice before Erika arrived at the scene.
  • When the R&D platform was being built, the culprit actually prepared a glass ceiling between the camera towers, which shielded that section of the bridge from rain. When Vulcan Raven delivered dinner into the R&D platform the day before, the hamburgers Wolf prepared were so greasy that the grease overflowed from the dinner box and onto the road. Naturally, as Raven observed proper driving culture and kept to a different side of the road when driving in different directions, when he returned he didn't drive over the grease and thus didn't notice anything. The overnight rain disposed of all the grease except in the blind spot due to the glass ceiling. Fox then lost control of his vehicle as he drove over the grease. The culprit's accomplice later entered the scene and disposed of the grease - Erika never checked the footage after the incident, after all.
  • As per Fede's tide shenanigan idea, the R&D platform was built such by the culprit that at a precise moment in the tide cycle, the bridge deforms in such a way as to cause a car to go out of control at the blind spot. The platform was constructed exactly 4 weeks ago, which means the culprit could plan this by constructing the platform to feature the obstacle when the work was finished. However, the obstacle remains for only a very short period of time, and thus nobody else encountered it. The obstacle could be a bump or it might be that pieces of the bridge separate a little at the blind spot or somesuch. The bridge might just bend a little, too, causing a car driving into the peak of the curve to fly ever-so-briefly into the air, causing loss of control.
  • There's no secret bridge built under the R&D Bridge. I'd count that as violating Knox's 3rd.
  • No food prepared by anyone led to Fox's demise. Neither the dinner nor breakfast contained something that led to Fox's demise.
  • The tide of the sea are not relevant in this murder. The road did not change because of it as such.
  • Raven doing any of his deliveries did not impact Fox's murder in any way.
  • Wolf, being the sniping specialist, fired a weighty projectile at Fox's jeep from the road to the Medical Platform using rubber bands, along the blind spot trajectory discussed previously. The projectile left one of the dents on the jeep. Octopus didn't find the projectile in the ocean because it bounced off of the jeep and landed in the ocean on the opposite side of the platform from the crane.
  • Liquid is accusing Erika based on the idea that she doesn't have an alibi for Mantis's death with Miller dead, but he also claims to have asked Ocelot about all the previous cases because he already suspected her. Ocelot was there when Miller explained Mantis's case to Big Boss and Erika, and knew that Boss called Erika specifically in response to Mantis already being dead. Wouldn't it be extremely suspicious to question someone about a specific person's guilt and not even ask about alibis?
  • With Octopus confirming Wolf beat Erika to Naomi's jeep, I still maintain it's ludicrous to claim she just didn't see a steel cable attached to the jeep she inspected and running all the way to the Medical Platform.
  • Security Camera footage will show that Erika never set foot in the Medical Building unaccompanied. Where did she get the venom from without being seen? Does Liquid believe that the legendary Big Boss, Miller, and Ocelot all missed her pocketing a deadly venom in the middle of a search specifically to remove deadly stuff? Or were there accomplices among your own leadership, as well as Campbell?
  • And the cactus! Ocelot definitely went into his room last night, and definitely locked the door all night. Even if we assume that Erika had an accomplice to tell her that there were cacti in Ocelot's room, when would anyone who wasn't planning this crime multiple days in advance have had a chance to grab one? Erika was almost never unaccompanied during the first day on the island.
  • If my theory about Fox's murder is correct, there's no way Erika-or anybody other than Wolf-could have made that shot.
  • Liquid and Octopus claim to have been following Erika the entirety of day 2. Therefore, they should have seen that Erika wasn't holding a rocket launcher when Ocelot was killed. She was on an entirely different platform, ergo to far away to throw something. So the only possibility is that a mine was planted in advance. But when? And how could an outsider like her be sure someone would drive over that exact spot? It's not exactly in the way of any roads.
  • Moreover, why? Why would Erika publicly take sole credit for disposing of the weapons if she were planning to visibly use them? She very clearly isn't thrilled about having been caught.
  • The trick to Fox's murder lies in heat expansion! When the culprit participated in constructing the bridge, they purposefully made it so that when sufficiently heated up, a bump or some other obstacle would appear in the blind spot of the cameras. This is how she managed to make Fox's jeep go out of control. How did the culprit control the temperature of the bridge, you ask? By taking advantage of the morning sun and the satellite dishes. She had angled the satellite dishes the previous day such that when the sun is at a particular angle, the light striking the satellite dishes reflects and converges to a particular point in the bridge, heating it up. This caused the bump to appear and disappear on its own, for once the sun had moved out of position, the light no longer warmed up the bridge, causing it to return to its original shape!
  • Nothing was tossed, shot, or hurled at Fox's jeep at ANY point.
  • Fox did not slip due to heat, nor did the heat create a bump in the road that could cause Fox's demise. The Satellites are not relevant in Fox's murder.
  • During the night, the culprit surreptitiously placed either some glass shards or some ice spikes at the blind spot, by sliding them past the cameras. Of course, this was caught on camera, but thanks to them being transparent and with the aid of the darkness in the footage, nobody was able to notice! These then either melted away, or were brushed aside from the impact and therefore did not cause any other vehicle to malfunction.
  • Even mostly transparant material, like glass or ice, would have been seen by Erika on Camera if it had been slid over the bridge onto the blind spot.
  • The culprit wove a thin yet strong wire around Fox's seatbelt. When Fox reached the blind spot, the wire was pulled taught for a fraction of a second before breaking, jerking the jeep off balance and making Fox lose control. Assuming the wire didn't break at the point it was on the seatbelt, it was long enough that the ends were still on the island before the checkpoint, and the culprit was able to recover them.
  • the culprit installed a secret refridgerator onto the blind spot while constructing the bridge that could be programmed to cool that section down to below freezing temperatures at will, causing the nightly rain to cover the blind spot in ice as fox drove over it, resulting in wacky car hijinks
  • Gray Fox's jeep did not slip due to ice.
  • Since it was built last, it's possible that the culprit and accomplice interfered with the process by planting some kind of hazard on the bridge- for instance, removing some of the plating from the high voltage wires and redirecting them close to the street's surface. With the rain, the electricity then zapped Fox in the Jeep, causing him to lose control of the car
  • Fox's jeep did not slip due to electricity hitting it in some way.
  • The culprit simply walked up to the blind spot and placed something slippery like oil there, then removed it afterwards.
    How?
    The platform was recently built, and the culprit saw to it that it never got properly connected to the rest of the bridge. Which meant, if it was a mobile floating platform, it could be moved around like this:
  • Totally easy enough to do at night and then again in the morning before the others are awake and notice Fox is dead.
  • The platforms cannot move. What you see on the board's map was the location they always were in.
  • The culprit created a path from the Medical Platform road to the blind spot by taping multiple ladders and/or poles together, which they used to place the obstacle and remove it after the fact.
  • It is impossible to get to the blindspot by any means other than using the road/bridge to the R&D Platform.
  • The bridge was built such by the culprit that it leaks oil or some other slippery substance onto the blindspot either on the culprit's command or whenever it rains. The oil was later disposed of by the culprit or the accomplice (Erika never checks the camera footage for what happened after the incident).
  • Perhaps it was still raining when Fox made his deliveries, and the bridge stopped pumping something slippery onto the road immediately after the jeep passed the trap, allowing the remaining rain to wash the road clean.
  • Fox's jeep may not have been tampered with in any way, but what if the other jeeps were? Their tires were coated with some kind of lipophobic substance that prevents oils from sticking into the tires, thus lessening its slippery effect. Or perhaps the tires were swapped for winter tires, which have greater traction overall.
  • It is impossible for the rain to remove anything slippery that may have been on the road so that another jeep can drive over it without any problems.
  • No jeep relevant to Fox's murder was ever tampered with.
  • The other jeeps weren't tampered with, they actually were equipped with winter tires from the onset. For whatever reason, Fox's jeep was bought such that it had summer tires. Maybe because Fox is so fond of drifting all across the base.
  • No jeeps are equiped with winter tires. Any jeep Fox would have used to drive over the bridge at that time would have caused his demise.
  • The oil/substance is prepared in such a way that it sticks to the first thing that goes/drives over it. In other words, Fox's jeep itself cleaned the bridge off the trap while driving over it!
  • The oil was set on fire by the culprit remotely, either with the help of some non-satellite reflective surface concentrating light, or via simple conduction of extreme heat through whatever metal parts the bridge might include. Having burned off the bridge, there was naturally no oil left anymore by the time anyone else drove beyond the checkpoint.
  • Jeeps cannot clean anything off the roads with their tires.
  • The bridge was never on fire at any point.
  • The culprit pumped some sticky substance through whatever oil pumping mechanism there was to counteract the oil! That, or they just pumped in some water or some other substance to wash away the oil.
  • There's no mechanism in place on the bridge that allows for pumping liquids through to wash anything away from the bridge. Gray Fox's jeep did not slip on oil.
  • soap bridge go slip slip upon rainfall
  • All mysteries have been solved.
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